Recent Macroeconomic Stability in China
Qing He, Haiqiang Chen
China Economic Review
#002199 20131014 (published)
The volatility of Chinese GDP growth has been markedly lower since the mid-1990s. We utilize frequency domain and vector autoregression (VAR) methods to investigate the origin of the observed volatility reduction in the Chinese economy. Our estimation indicates that lower volatility of random shocks to the economy, or the good luck hypothesis, accounts for most of the decline in macroeconomic volatility. Although good policy and better business practices are also contributing factors, they play a marginal role in dampening China’s economic fluctuations.
JEL-Codes: C33 ; E31 ; E32 ; J00.
Keywords: Great Moderation; Output Volatility; China.

Download full text